Analysts interviewed by
Renewable Energy World
favored India as the top market for growth in 2017. The
U.S. came in second followed by Africa, the Middle
East and China and Mexico, which are all viewed a
growth markets for 2017.
Japan, Germany, Australia, and the UK will likely
stay fat or contract in 2017
according to the analysts.
“The U.S. has moved
into one of the top positions in terms of leaders in
the industry but there are
a lot of other countries that
are ahead of the U.S. both
in terms of total cumulative
installed capacity and also
annual installations,” said
Growth in India and China
is being fueled by the government’s desire to expand solar
capacity in the country. In
fact, according to SPV Chief
Market Research Analyst
Paula Mints all solar growth
is “either government funded, subsidized, incentivized
or mandated.” (See sidebar,
“India is government mandated growth and developers
are shoving everything they
can into the ground,” said
Paula Mints, Chief Market
Research Analyst with SPV
Looking at the solar market a different way, analysts expect to
see utility-scale projects dominate the PV market with the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector coming in at a close second.
Uncertainty around net-metering means that sector will grow
the least amount, according to analysts. Although residential will
still be a growth sector overall.
“The residential market is the US, EU, Japan, Australia and
that’s it,” said Mints, adding “In the U.S. I think that net-meter-
ing changes have cast a pall on the residential market so it has
NREL’s Feldman agrees. “I think the biggest threat to further
solar deployment is at the distributed level and has to do with
state laws dealing with net metering,” he said in an interview.
Most analysts aren’t expecting a new or groundbreaking solar technology to hit the market in 2017. Instead module makers are upping
their timelines for improved module effciency to offer advanced
technology that can deliver in this low-pricing environment.
“Because of the rapid reduction in pricing, companies have
started to signifcantly push their roadmaps forward, said Feldman. Indeed, First Solar announced in November that it was
scrapping production of its Series 5 modules and will spend
2017 focusing on manufacturing the Series 6 – its most effcient
Residential solar in Europe
could contract in 2017.
Credit: Creative Commons.