WIND
Chile. Such markets often take more time to develop and come to
fruition, Albenze said, “but we’re investing time and resources
down there.”
Asia: Awaiting China’s Reawakening
China likely ended 2013 with about 16. 1 GW of new wind capacity and 1,290 TWh of production, according to Yu Guiyong from
the China Wind Energy Association; he expects another 18 GW
to be added this year. Only about 7. 8 GW was integrated into
the grid last year, though, while the pipeline of approved capacity has swelled to more than 134 GW, as development expands
beyond the traditional wind bases out into the southern regions
of the country. (China’s total installed wind capacity stands at
roughly 90 GW, toward aggressive targets of 100 GW of cumulative wind capacity by 2015 and 200 GW by 2020.)
Thus China’s biggest problem is fguring out how to manage
the over-installments of projects over the past couple of years
that have outpaced grid connections, leading to large-scale curtailment of wind power in the major wind centers, and pave the
way for the new wave of projects in the pipeline. That means
investing in new infrastructure as well as power market reform.
Planning and permitting of new wind projects had ground to a
halt because of centralized government approvals required to
obtain tariffs; now provincial governments have been authorized
to approve projects, decentralizing the process and hopefully
speeding things up, while also promoting job creation. The need
for interconnection and transmission buildout is being addressed
through another new policy being pushed by the national congress; Navigant’s Zhao sees China’s market reenergizing literally
as more HVDC lines get commissioned in the coming year.
The other major Asia wind market is India, which has become
fairly stable at around 1. 5-2.0 GW per year. And yet “it’s tough
to do business there now, it’s a highly competitive market,” said
GWEC’s Sawyer. It’s “a pretty good place for an investor, and as
an OEM, but [it’s] tough for a project developer.”
International Markets: Placing Bets On Growth
Asked what three countries should enjoy the best growth in
2014, GWEC’s Sawyer said he expects to see “signifcant growth”
in Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa: “they’re all competitive, a
crowded feld, but nowhere as crowded as the U.S. or Europe,
and without the same degree of diffculty to get into as China,” he
said. On the fip side, so many
regions with overcapacity
and oversupplies mean down-
ward pressure on OEM pric-
es, which in turn will help
project developers. Sawyer
doesn’t see that cycle chang-
ing much in 2014, or even the
next couple of years out.
Navigant’s Zhao highlight-
ed South Africa as a mar-
ket to watch, as construction
gets underway for projects
under the Renewable Ener-
gy Independent Power Pro-
ducer Procurement Pro-
gram (REIPPP) I and II, more
than half of which will come
online in 2014.
Keith Longtin, general
manager of wind products for
GE, pointed to Brazil, Ger-
many, Turkey, the U.K., and
India. Broadly speaking, “it’s
challenging to invest in coun-
tries for the long-term when a
stable energy policy is not in
place,” he said.
Acciona’s Readling sees
opportunities in Cana-
da, Mexico, Costa Rica, and
South Africa, as capital that
once fowed to the U.S. mar-
ket is being somewhat redi-
rected to other areas, at least
temporarily.
Alstom is keen to launch
new service packages and
turbine and tower upgrades
in the coming months,
both for onshore and off-
shore wind, according to
