Shah is convinced that this fact alone is what has been driving
“thousands of non-solar electricity experts to enter our industry
in 60-70 countries around the world,” he said. “They represent
the ‘barbarians at the gate’ and will fuel continued 20 percent
annual global MW growth for the solar industry through 2020.”
Tat Old Supply/Demand Problem
Will supply and demand ever be in balance so that all players
from manufacturers to installers are happily making a proft and
solar panels are slowly but steadily blanketing the earth? Shah
isn’t convinced that manufacturers need to be “hugely proftable”
but said that if panel prices were to remain fat for the next couple
of years, by the 2015 or 2016 timeframe, he thinks module manu-
facturers will have positive gross margins. Mints is more reticent,
saying that she’d like to see prices stabilize before she’d be ready
to go out on a limb and predict when balance will be achieved.
“There’s just no visibility on that yet,” she said. Le thinks balance
will happen more readily for the module manufacturers that are
vertically integrated such as
First Solar or SunPower, but
he doesn’t want to guess when
total system health will return
to the solar industry. “I’ll
leave that to the fnancial ana-
lysts,” he said. à
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Te Great solar Debate.
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